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Saturday 24 September 2011

Ghost town league table: where are the empty shops?

The ghost towns
The Local Data Company's latest Shop Vacancy report found that the biggest problems are in the Midlands and the North, where all of the top ten emptiest large shopping areas are based. Meanwhile seven in ten of the high streets with the fewest empty shops are in the South.

Of the large centres, a number have almost one in three shops standing empty. Stockport is the emptiest town centre, where 27.7% shops are empty - an increase of 3.5% from this time last year. Blackpool and Grimsby are not much better off, with rates of 17.5% and increases of around 1% each.

Of the medium-sized centres, Dudley takes the top spot with a 29.4% vacancy rate. Alarmingly this has risen 16.1% in a year. Other ghost towns featuring high on the list are West Bromwich with a vacancy rate of 28.3% and a rise of 4% and Hartlepool with a vacancy rate of 27.9% and a rise of 4.9%.

But it's in the smaller towns where clearly the end is nigh for some streets. In Leigh Park some 36.4% of shops are empty. And although that has fallen 0.3% it hardy constitutes a turnaround. Likewise Margate has a vacancy rate of 36.1%, which is down 1.3%. Perhaps most worryingly Wandsworth is at 31.5%, which is up 9.6% from this time last year.

And things aren't likely to change for the better any time soon. The British Property Federation said: "The short and medium view of this report is that this is unlikely to improve significantly due to the current economic climate, the rise of alternative sales channels and the number of shops the country has."

Death of the high street
In many of these areas, clearly the future will not be as a shopping centre. Shopping guru Mary Portas has been criticised for voicing this belief, but she is not alone. Take Wandsworth, for instance, houses are in massive demand in the area, while shops are dying. It doesn't take a genius to work out that developers are going to spot the opportunity at some stage and we will see homes and offices spring up in place of the shops.

And while we can weep and wail at the death of the high street, we need to bear two things in mind. The first is that it's an inevitable consequence of modern society. It is cheaper and easier to shop online or in supermarkets, so the bargain-hunters have departed. If you want to bring the car, it's far easier to travel to an out of town mall now that councils have made the cost of parking in town prohibitive, so the convenience seekers have left.

The only people shopping in the area are those with a strong sense of loyalty, those without a car, and those who think of it as a leisure interest rather than a dull necessity. Once you render a third of the shops empty, it's less of a fun day out meeting people, and more of a wander around a depressing, boarded up ghost town, so they aren't going to hang around for long either.

The second is that the death of the high street could be the answer to our property nightmares. If we can redevelop these desolate areas, there's a chance that we can build the housing we need in order to make homes more affordable to first time buyers - without bulldozing the countryside.

But what do you think? Is your high street dying? Who is to blame? Let us know in the comments.

The emptiest large shopping centres
1. Stockport
2= Blackpool
2= Grimsby
4. Stockton-on-Tees
5. Bradford

The most occupied large centres 
1 Exeter
2. Edinburgh
3. Cambridge
4. Taunton
5= Kingston-upon-Thames
5= York

The emptiest medium-sized shopping centres
1. Dudley
2. West Bromwich
3. Hartlepool
4. Dewsbury
5= Blackburn
5= Dartford

The most occupied medium-sized centres 
1= Falmouth
1=Walthamstow
1= Clapham Junction
1= Cirencester
5 Wimbledon

The emptiest small shopping centres
1. Leigh Park
2. Margate
3. Wandsworth
4. Runcorn
5= Cheetham
5= North Cheam

The most occupied small centres 
1= Beaconsfield
1= Epping
3= All Saints
3= West Bridgford
5 Highgate

High streets struggle as shoppers curb spending or drive to out-of-town malls


One in seven shops on the high street is now boarded up, the victims of a faltering economy and the long-term trends towards online and out-of-town shopping, according to a report published on Thursday.
In the most depressed locations, the vacancy rate is one in three shops, with the title of worst-hit small town going to Leigh Park in Havant, near Portsmouth.
Leigh Park has overtaken Margate, which had the worst vacancy rate when the research was last compiled. But there are also some surprises. Wandsworth, in south London, home of bonus-bracket bankers, has slipped on to the list of the 10 small centres with the highest levels of shop vacancies.
Among the largest centres, Stockport and Blackpool top the list, with vacancy rates at more than 25%, while among medium-sized centres, rates are nearly 30% in Dudley and West Bromwich.
The survey, by the Local Data Company, highlights the scale of the challenge facing Mary Portas, who has been given the task of drafting a plan to rejuvenate Britain's high streets. She is due to report to the government in the autumn.
Consumers have been deserting high streets in recent years, preferring to drive to out-of-town shopping malls, and the LDC research says that the big property companies that own them are continuing to do well while others suffer.
But shoppers have also been curbing spending, as many face pay freezes or job losses, and inflation continues to run ahead.
For retailers, the only crumb of comfort in the report is that the growth in high street vacancy rates appears to have stalled: the first half of 2011 was only as bad as – rather than worse than – 2010.
"This report shows how fragile the British high street is in parts of the country," said Matthew Hopkinson, the LDC's director. "The pressures it faces are increasing and therefore one needs to be realistic in one's approach to each and every one of these towns if they are all to have a future.
"The stark reality is that Great Britain has too many shops in the wrong locations and of the wrong size. The diversity of shop vacancy rates is clear evidence that a local approach is required that ties in with consumer needs and the realities of modern retailing. The market still has significant corrections ahead and the impact of these will vary significantly according to location."
Those left behind by the move to out-of-town malls include many northern centres, where retail vacancy rates are higher. The north-south divide is also widening. The north-west and the north-east have the highest vacancy rates, while the south-east and London have the lowest. According to the LDC, town centre vacancy rates have surged, from just over 5% at the end of 2008 to 14.5% today as one in seven shops pull down the shutters.
Experts differ on what ought to be done. Landlords argue that out-of-town centres should not be punished for being successful. "We must also accept that some secondary retail units are no longer viable and plan their transition to other uses. Simply hurting successful retailing to level the playing field is not the solution. We must find new ways to get people on to our high streets and in our local shops," said Liz Pearce, the chief executive of the British Property Federation.
Those with a major stake in high streets take a different view, however.
"For every one square foot of new retail space planned in town centres, four square feet are planned out of town," said Shane Brennan, public affairs director for the Association of Convenience Stores. "The ability to build stores outside towns has been made possible by a combination of confused and poorly applied planning rules, the power of developers, and weakness of local councils. Unless we see urgent action our high streets will be lost to a final wave of out-of-town retail construction that threatens to remove retail from the heart of our communities."
John Pal, senior lecturer in retailing at Manchester Business School, suggested there was just too much retail space – just days before another 1.9m sq ft of shopping space opens next to the Olympic Stadium in east London.
"The downturn in consumer confidence means that there are too many shops chasing too few customers. Whilst some retailers, such as Woolworths and Focus DIY, have gone out of business and had their best sites snapped up by competitors, other retailers have been closing stores in a bid to remain profitable. The challenge, for those with a stake in smaller centres in particular, is how to remain viable for retailers and attractive for customers."
Chuka Umunna MP, the shadow minister for small business and enterprise, called for a cut in the rate of VAT to help struggling high streets. "These new figures on shop vacancy rates demonstrate how a lack of confidence in the economy, coupled with the VAT hike and the squeeze on family incomes, is hitting the high street.
"The Tory-led government needs to take urgent action to help retailers and stop our high streets stagnating," he said. "A temporary cut in VAT would help consumers and businesses now, kick-start the stalled recovery and so help us get the deficit down.

Viability of town centres uncertain



National retail chains are deserting high streets in the north of England en masse, calling into question the long-term viability of once-vibrant shopping destinations, according to research.
Vacancy rates in many town centres in the north and Midlands are now approaching 30 per cent, according to the Local Data Company, which publishes its six-monthly health check on the nation’s high streets today.

Stockport, Blackpool, Grimsby, Stockton-on-Tees, Hartlepool and Dudley are among the retail centres worst affected, with nearly one in every three shops vacant. Average vacancy rates in the north-west region have increased to 17 per cent, the highest in the country. However, the national average vacancy rate has flattened out at 14.5 per cent over the past year, stabilised by recovering town centres in the more affluent south-east.

Mary Portas, the government’s retail adviser, who is due to report this autumn on how to tackle the high street’s fading fortunes, has admitted that some areas are beyond redemption.
“There are towns where it’s dead,” she told the BBC. “The horse has bolted. Give up. It’s bonkers to say we can do them all, we won’t be able to.”

Ms Portas added that residential conversion may be the only outcome for some – a conclusion challenged by Matthew Hopkinson, director of the Local Data Company, which compiled the research. “Who’s going to want to live in a deserted town centre, or pay for houses to be built there?” he said.

“These areas have no jobs, no prospects, and no shops. To have a vibrant town centre, you need wealth creation through local employment to support it.”

Mr Hopkinson said the deterioration of high streets followed a pattern across the UK.
“Vacancy increases the most around the periphery, until whole streets are no longer viable,” he said. “Reduced footfall deters the national retailers, who are happier trading in large shopping centres.

“Then, the discounters and pawnbrokers who were previously in secondary locations are able to move to prime positions.”

Stockport, where nearly 28 per cent of shops are vacant, saw 63 retailers close their doors in the first six months of this year. A fifth of these were national retail chains, including River Island, Jane Norman, Evans and Birthdays.

Although 39 shops opened in the same period, the majority were independent retailers. Tellingly, the only two national chains to take shops were both alternative finance providers – Cash Converters and the Cheque Centre.

“The north of England clearly has much more exposure to public sector cuts and falls in house prices than the south, so shoppers here are more bargain hungry,” said Tarlok Teji, retail analyst at Manchester Business School.

“Those who do have money are using it to pay down debts in the event that things get worse.”
Despite the gloomy outlook, budget retailers are still expanding on some high streets. On Wednesday, 99p Stores revealed that Barclays Corporate had provided a £20m facility to enable it to double the number of its shops to 300 across Europe in the next four years.

Shop vacancy rates stabilise at 14.5% but north-south divide remains


Shop vacancy rates have stabilised at 14.5% during the first half of this year but the gap between the best and worst performing towns has widened, the latest research by The Local Data Company has found.
The review of shop vacancy figures of more than 1,000 retail centres shows that the threefold increase in vacancy rates since 2007 has been halted, but in extreme centres, one in three shops is vacant.
Cementing the north-south divide, all southern regions were found to have an average vacancy at or below 11% while the Midlands and North range from just under 13% in the East Midlands to 16% in the North West.
The top 10 worst-performing large centres are in the West Midlands and the North while seven out of the top 10 best large centres are in the South.
Retailers are looking to close older and poorer performing outlets where possible, and relocate into new stores in the bigger and better centres, streets and warehouses to bolster diminishing profits. This trend is expected to continue to benefit larger landlords with prime portfolios at the expense of high streets and secondary centres.
Stockport town centre was found to have the highest vacancy rate of the larger town centres (those containing more than 400 shops) with 27.7% of its shops empty, up by 3.5%. Blackpool and Grimbsy followed with vacancy rates of 27.5%.
The larger town centre with the best vacancy rate was Bromley, with 9% of its shops empty.
Dudley was the medium town centre (with between 200 and 399 shops) with the highest vacancy rate of 29.4%, up 16.1%, while Leigh Park and Margate were the worst performing small centres with vacancy rates of 36.4% and 36.1% respectively.
A three year analysis of 75 towns from the first half of 2008 found 7% had weathered the storm, while 29% had an increase of less than a 10% rise in shop vacancy. The remaining 64% showed increases, in the worst cases, of over 20%.
Matthew Hopkinson, director at the Local Data Company, said:“This report shows how fragile the British high street is in parts of the country. The stark reality is that Great Britain has too many shops in the wrong locations and of the wrong size. The diversity of shop vacancy rates is clear evidence that a local approach is required that ties in with consumer needs and the realities of modern retailing. The market still has significant corrections ahead and the impact of these will vary significantly according to location.”
Liz Peace, chief executive of the British Property Federation, said: “Many high streets and town centres are in a critical, but stable condition. Their recovery is not just going to happen, but will need nursing. It will require investment from our sector, and the confidence that goes with a local authority that has leadership, a clear vision, and a willingness to plan and manage their retail environment. We must also accept that some secondary retail units are no longer viable and plan their transition to other uses. Simply hurting successful retailing to level the playing field is not the solution. We must find new ways to get people on to our high streets and in our local shops.”

Vacancy rates at ten-year low for top malls


The top 20 shopping centres and high streets - including Briggate in Leeds - are experiencing their best vacancy rates for ten years, according to research by DTZ Retail.
Statistics unveiled at the British Council of Shopping Centres conference in Manchester revealed that vacancy rates across these malls and high streets are on average 15 per cent lower than a year ago at 2.55 per cent.
It also found a focus of international retailers acquiring in the UK narrowing to fewer locations with stores such as Forever 21, Hollister and Victoria's Secret acquiring space in the top ten or 20 locations before moving on to continental Europe or Asia. This is a change from the previous pattern of focusing on the top 25 or 30 locations, DTZ said.
Hugh Radford, head of UK Retail at DTZ, said: "These figures may well come as a surprise to many commentators given the ongoing tough retail trading environment and uncertain global economic outlook.
"These figures do, however, only apply to the top 20 malls and high streets in the UK, which are rare, super prime locations."
DTZ said the 'top 20' locations include Buchanan St, Glasgow; the Bullring, Birmingham; the Trafford Centre, Manchester; Briggate in Leeds and a number of malls in and around London including Brent Cross, Bluewater and Westfield London.

Friday 23 September 2011

Shop vacancy rates could rise to new high

The British Council of Shopping Centres has predicted that more than one in ten UK stores could remain vacant in the long term.

The organisation thinks that vacant units will peak at a new high of 13-14% in the immediate future, before falling to around 11% in the long run.  This compares to an average vacancy rate of  6-7% before 2007 according to retail property organisation BCSC’s latest report.

The research considered factors such as demographic change, the rise of internet retailing, and the expansion of supermarket chains as key drivers for rising retail vacancies, in addition to the current difficult economic climate. The BCSC said that the growth of shopping centre space since the 1980s, with tenancies on longer 25 year leases, had also added to the problem.

In response to the report’s findings, BCSC is calling on communities, businesses and local government to be creative in generating new ways of utilising empty space.

Richard Akers, BCSC President and Managing Director for Retail at Land Securities commented: “Boarded up shops are the most prominent symptom of the plight of some town centres, the state of which has been magnified by a number of high-profile reports in recent weeks, and of course by Mary Portas' appointment by Government.

“The problem, whilst clearly exacerbated by the economic downturn, is a structural one, and with this research we’re hoping to move the debate on to focus on how we can bring unoccupied retail space back into use in the long-term, or put it to alternative uses.”

The report calls for Government to make a strong commitment to town centres as a focus for investment as part of the proposed National Planning Policy Framework, and argues the business rates regime acts as a barrier to retail growth.

Akers continued: “UK business rates must be urgently reviewed if retail businesses are to survive and compete with rising online sales on an even footing. Likewise, the imposition of empty rates on even the smallest properties is hindering owners’ investment in their properties, and therefore their ability to work with town centre managers in developing centres that meet residents' needs."

The BCSC has suggested  that some town centres could benefit from a reduction in the total amount of retail space, particularly where the units are small, old-fashioned and or poorly configured. However, it argues this should be part of a carefully managed strategy to provide a mix of property types, and be consistent with local plans.

BCSC Chief Executive Michael Green called for closer collaboration between stakeholders to share advice and work together to provide vibrant town centres: “Above all, leadership is needed to make sure that town centres continue to be relevant and attractive to consumers.

Shop vacancy rates stabilize but regional divide widens



Town centre vacancy rates in Great Britain stabilized at 14.5% during the first half of 2011, but a regional analysis reinforces the North South divide. The Local Data Company’s latest Shop Vacancy report, which reviews the figures from over 1,000 retail centres, shows that while the threefold increase in vacancy rates since 2007 has ceased, in extreme cases one in three shops stands vacant, while other centres remain at pre-recession levels.
LDC said that the situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short to medium term due to the current economic climate, the rise of alternative sales channels and the sheer number of shops that exist across Britain.
All of the southern regions have an average vacancy at 11% or below, while the Midlands and North range from just under 13% in the East Midlands to 16% in the North West. The top ten worst-performing large centres are in the West Midlands and the North while seven out of the top ten best centres are in the South.
Matthew Hopkinson, director at the Local Data Company, said the report shows how fragile the British High Street is in parts of the country. “The pressures it faces are increasing and therefore one needs to be realistic in one’s approach to each and every one of these towns if they are all to have a future,” he commented.
“The stark reality is that Great Britain has too many shops in the wrong locations and of the wrong size. The diversity of shop vacancy rates is clear evidence that a local approach is required that ties in with consumer needs and the realities of modern retailing. The market still has significant corrections ahead and the impact of these will vary significantly according to location.”
Amongst the medium-sized centres the situation is the same as in large centres, with eight out of the ten worst-performing located in the North and the top ten centres residing in London and the South. The only exceptions are Dartford with a vacancy rate of 26.3% and Newport in South Wales with 26%. The best performing medium-sized centres run from Sevenoaks with a vacancy rate below 5% to Falmouth at 6.6%.
In smaller centres, the best performers are again mainly in London and the South East. At first glance the top ten worst performing small centres looks different, with Margate (36% vacancy) and Wandsworth (31%) at the top of the table. However, further down the list the picture becomes more familiar with the likes of Runcorn, Corby and Bootle all seeing poor vacancy rates.
LDC said there is increasing evidence that “retailer pain” is not spread evenly between the High Street and the Shopping Centre. The latest results from several of the big, retail-owning property companies show their revenues have been surviving any tenant difficulties with ease. Solid rental growth, footfall and occupancy levels demonstrate that prime properties are taking market share away from other locations.
“Retailers are looking to close older and poorer performing outlets where possible, and relocate into new stores in the bigger and better centres, streets and warehouses to bolster diminishing profits,” said LDC. “The more they come under pressure, the greater will be the need to rationalise portfolios of stores into the best-performing locations, which should continue to benefit the larger companies with prime portfolios at the expense of high streets and secondary centres elsewhere.”
Liz Peace, Chief Executive of the British Property Federation, said the recovery of Britain’s high streets and town centres is “not just going to happen,” but will need nursing. “It will require investment from our sector, and the confidence that goes with a local authority that has leadership, a clear vision, and a willingness to plan and manage their retail environment.
“We must also accept that some secondary retail units are no longer viable and plan their transition to other uses. Simply hurting successful retailing to level the playing field is not the solution. We must find new ways to get people on to our high streets and in our local shops.”

Shop vacancy rates rise in northern town centres

Figures published by the Local Data Company reveal that, while vacancy rates in Britain have stabilised at 14.5 per cent during the first half of 2011 following a threefold increase since 2007, nearly one in three shops are vacant in some town centres in the north and Midlands. 

According to the report, the worst affected large centres are Stockport (27.7 per cent of shops vacant), Blackpool (27.5 per cent), Grimsby (27.5 per cent), Stockton-on-Tees (27.4 per cent) and Bradford (26.8 per cent).

Dudley (29.4 per cent), West Bromwich (28.3 per cent), Hartlepool (27.9 per cent), Dewsbury (27.6 per cent) and Blackburn (26.3 per cent) are the medium-sized centres with the highest vacancy rates, the figures show. 

The worst-hit small town centre is Leigh Park in Havant, near Portsmouth, where 36.4 per cent of stores are vacant, the report says.

The north-west is the region with the most shop vacancies, with 17 per cent of stores empty, according to the report.

Local Data Company director Matthew Hopkinson said: "The stark reality is that Britain has too many shops in the wrong locations and of the wrong size.

"The diversity of shop vacancy rates is clear evidence that a local approach is required that ties in with consumer needs and the realities of modern retailing."

Liz Peace, chief executive of lobby group the British Property Federation, said: "Many of our high streets and town centres are in a critical, but stable condition. Their recovery is not just going to happen, but will need nursing.

"It will require investment from our sector, and the confidence that goes with a local authority that has leadership, a clear vision, and a willingness to plan and manage their retail environment."

some towns


Town
Region
Size
% change
Vacancy Rate
Stanmore (Town Centre)LONSmall-0.50.4
Winton (Town Centre)SWSmall-0.91
Kingsbury (Town Centre)LONSmall1.11.1
St. Johns Wood (Town Centre)LONSmall0.41.4
Bridport (Town Centre)SWSmall0.81.6
Highgate (Town Centre)LONSmall-0.31.9
West Bridgford (Town Centre)EMDSmall-1.22.2
All Saints (Town Centre)LONSmall-1.22.2
Epping (Town Centre)ESmall-2.22.3
Beaconsfield (Town Centre)SESmall-3.22.3
Banstead (Town Centre)SEMedium-3.34.8
East Ham (Town Centre)LONMedium24.9
Southall (Town Centre)LONMedium0.35.6
Wood Green (Town Centre)LONMedium1.86.2
Holloway Road (Town Centre)LONMedium-1.36.4
Wimbledon (Town Centre)LONMedium-0.46.5
Walthamstow (Town Centre)LONMedium1.96.6
Clapham Junction (Town Centre)LONMedium-0.76.6
Falmouth (Town Centre)SWMedium-4.16.6
Cirencester (Town Centre)SWMedium0.46.6
Bromley (Town Centre)LONLarge1.59
Camden Town (Town Centre)LONLarge-1.79.2
Harrogate (Town Centre)YLarge-2.39.3
St. Albans (Town Centre)ELarge-2.69.6
Kingston-upon-Thames (Town Centre)LONLarge0.19.9
York (Town Centre)YLarge-1.29.9
Taunton (Town Centre)SWLarge-0.710
Cambridge (Town Centre)ELarge-2.510.3
Edinburgh (Town Centre)SCOLarge-0.710.8
Exeter (Town Centre)SWLarge-3.211.1
Birmingham (Town Centre)WMDLarge-1.423.8
Warrington (Town Centre)NWLarge124
Wigan (Town Centre)NWMedium1.324
Kingston-upon-Hull (Town Centre)YLarge-0.124.2
Bootle (Town Centre)NWSmall3.324.4
Corby (Town Centre)EMDSmall11.525
Altrincham (Town Centre)NWMedium-3.925.1
Wolverhampton (Town Centre)WMDLarge1.525.3
Barrow-in-Furness (Town Centre)NWMedium525.4
Middleton (Town Centre)NWSmall3.125.5
Lee Green (Town Centre)LONSmall-8.525.9
Newport, Monmouthshire (Town Centre)WALMedium-2.826
Walsall (Town Centre)WMDLarge-0.826
Blackburn (Town Centre)NWMedium0.826.3
Dartford (Town Centre)SEMedium5.326.3
Bradford (Town Centre)YLarge1.526.8
Stockton-on-Tees (Town Centre)NELarge-1.327.4
Blackpool (Town Centre)NWLarge0.927.5
Grimsby (Town Centre)YLarge1.127.5
Dewsbury (Town Centre)YMedium-0.827.6
Stockport (Town Centre)NWLarge3.527.7
North Cheam (Town Centre)LONSmall0.227.9
Hartlepool (Town Centre)NEMedium4.927.9
Cheetham (Town Centre)NWSmall7.928.3
West Bromwich (Town Centre)WMDMedium428.3
Dudley (Town Centre)WMDMedium16.129.4
Runcorn (Town Centre)NWSmall-0.729.6
Wandsworth (Town Centre)LONSmall9.631.5
Margate (Town Centre)SESmall-1.336.1
Leigh Park (Town Centre)SESmall-0.336.4