internet retail

The area that all of the research seem to ignore is the rise and dominance of Internet Retailing. Whilst it is acknowledged that the High Street has declined in a fairly short period of time, the next phase may leave some towns without any real functions, and the business of retail property needs to brace itself for further shock waves. It is this area of research that really needs to supplement the research that has already been undertaken.

There are several factors that seem to be having an effect at the moment. Firstly the increased usage of consumers, secondly, faster broadband, and thirdly, the availability of more products on line.

Taking the Shopping Centre Online, a paper written by Timothy Dixon, and Andrew Marston, 2004 , recognised that the internet would feature as a shopping medium, and suggest that in 2001, Internet sales accounted for 1.5% of total consumer spend., increasing to a forecast of 5.6 % by 2006 . In reality this figure today is some 25-30% and stands at about £xxx billion.

They do identify certain retailers that could be vulnerable to an increase shift on-line, being banks, travel agents and secondary comparison shops. As a result they predict a decrease in rents over a period of time and retail property investments will be at “risk” (P.98).

It would appear that this research does identify the issues slightly differently from the other texts, but the estimates fall far short of the reality, which can only culminate in the effects being far greater than those forecast in 2006.

They discuss the necessity of the Shopping Centres having to re-invent themselves, and market themselves in different ways, offering loyalty cards and incentives to attract customers and the importance of brand loyalty.

One interesting observation they do make, is the prevalence of turnover leases, where some leases in Shopping Centres are linked to turnover rents . Naturally, if the turnovers start to decrease, rents and investment values fall. Perhaps this is an area that could be researched further as it would be a useful tool for forecasting certain towns decline.

Some research on Shopping Centre decline is needed as a separate topic, (as opposed to the High Street), as the conditions are more carefully conditioned and controlled.